A major new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has painted a sobering picture of Canada’s housing crisis, and Edmonton is not immune. According to the CBC’s June 19 coverage of the report, Canada must build 4.8 million new homes over the next decade to restore housing affordability to 2019 levels — a figure that nearly doubles the country’s current pace of construction.
While Alberta — and Edmonton in particular — has long been viewed as relatively affordable compared to cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the new analysis signals that those days may be fading fast unless urgent action is taken.
CMHC’s Bold Housing Forecast: 4.8 Million Homes Needed by 2035
The CMHC’s latest “Supply Gaps Estimate” marks a shift in how Canada thinks about housing affordability. Instead of aiming to return to the more generous affordability conditions of the early 2000s, the agency is now focusing on more recent — and still challenging — 2019 benchmarks.
In its updated framework, the CMHC estimates that between 430,000 to 480,000 homes must be built every year until 2035. For context, just 90,760 housing starts were recorded across the country through May of this year.
Edmonton in the National Picture: A Local Lens on a Canada-Wide Crisis
Edmonton has historically benefited from lower housing costs compared to the national average. But the CMHC report warns that even in Alberta’s capital, affordability is slipping. Much like the rest of Canada, Edmonton has experienced a surge in housing demand — especially since the COVID-19 pandemic encouraged urban flight and remote work flexibility.
The report notes that these trends have “spread the affordability crisis” from major urban centers into mid-sized cities and regions once considered affordable, such as the Prairies.
According to the CBC: Affordability Slipping Away
The CBC’s reporting emphasized just how far affordability has eroded since 2019. While Toronto and Vancouver still dominate headlines, Montreal, Nova Scotia, and large swaths of Ontario are now part of the affordability problem — and Edmonton could be next if proactive steps aren’t taken.
The report reminds policymakers that affordability is no longer a problem confined to the coastal giants. It’s a pan-Canadian challenge, and Edmonton’s growing population and housing demand place it firmly in the mix.
The CMHC Report: A New Framework for the Future
CMHC has shifted its focus away from achieving affordability levels last seen in 2004 — a bar now deemed unrealistic — to restoring the housing market to 2019 conditions. The agency also now uses a rolling 10-year horizon, recognizing the years-long delays often required to rezone land and obtain development permits.
This pivot is particularly relevant for Alberta’s municipalities, where land may be more available but bureaucratic delays can still stretch timelines beyond what the housing crisis demands.
Workforce, Investment, and Innovation: What’s Needed Now
CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Aled ab Iorwerth told CBC that doubling Canada’s housing output is technically feasible, “but not without a significantly larger and modernized workforce.”
In Edmonton, this means training tradespeople faster, encouraging skilled immigration, and leaning on technology. Prefabricated modular homes, 3D printing, and offsite construction methods were highlighted as possible solutions to boost productivity and lower costs.
CBC Commentary: The Condo Market Crash in Context
While the CBC spotlighted the condo downturn in Toronto and Vancouver, the report offers lessons for Edmonton too. These high-profile stumbles reflect broader imbalances in the housing market, where luxury units may be plentiful, but attainable housing remains elusive.
The CMHC warns that simply building more homes is not enough. Those homes must match the income profiles of the people who need them most — a key takeaway for Edmonton planners and developers.
Rising Costs and Income Disparities: The Core of the Affordability Crisis
One of the most important shifts in CMHC’s methodology is its new price-to-income affordability ratio, which adjusts for things like interest rates and mortgage qualification rules. In Edmonton — where incomes are more modest than in the GTA — this adjustment is crucial to understanding how much housing people can realistically afford.
Rents, too, are on the rise. The CMHC data shows that average rents have gone up across Canada, including in Alberta. For many Edmontonians, the once-comfortable buffer between housing costs and income is quickly vanishing.
What Edmonton Policymakers Can Take From the Report
For Edmonton’s city council and developers, the CMHC report should act as both a warning and a roadmap. Fast-tracking rezoning approvals, incentivizing density, and coordinating with provincial workforce initiatives will be essential if Edmonton hopes to avoid the fate of its more expensive cousins.
FAQs on Housing Affordability and Edmonton’s Role
Q1: Why is CMHC saying affordability is worse now than in 2019?
Because post-pandemic demand and supply chain issues drove up home prices and rents across Canada — including in Alberta.
Q2: How is Edmonton doing compared to Toronto or Vancouver?
Edmonton remains more affordable, but affordability is deteriorating, especially for renters and first-time buyers.
Q3: What can Edmonton do differently?
Streamline development approvals, build more affordable rental stock, and adopt modern construction technologies.
Q4: Does this mean the housing crisis is now national?
Yes, CMHC now confirms that affordability issues are no longer isolated to big cities.
Q5: Are modular and prefab homes a real solution?
Maybe, CMHC suggests these approaches could dramatically boost productivity and reduce costs. This author is skeptical.
Q6: Is 4.8 million new homes by 2035 realistic?
Only if workforce capacity doubles and public/private sector collaboration ramps up urgently.
Conclusion: Will Edmonton Rise to the Challenge?
As Canada stares down the barrel of a deepening housing crisis, the CMHC’s latest data underscores the urgency of the moment. While Edmonton may not face the same affordability crunch as Toronto or Vancouver — yet — the warning signs are unmistakable.
With the right policies, investment, and innovation, Edmonton has a chance to lead by example in tackling the national housing crisis. But time, as CMHC and the CBC both suggest, is running out.
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